Alpha Metrics | Substack

Alpha Metrics

Built a 300k+ audience in markets. Investment banking perspective. I break down where pricing diverges from fundamentals (2-6x setups). Data-led. No narratives.

Launched 2 months ago

Alpha Metrics

The AI race just got bigger.

The U.S. is investing hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure.

China is doing the same.

Now Japan has unveiled a ¥370 trillion ($2.3T+) roadmap through 2040, with massive capital earmarked for semiconductors, data centers, physical AI, next-generation wireless technologies and vertical AI.

**The smartest investors follow where capital is flowing first.

Sector rotation often starts long before headlines catch up.

A simple way to track it is through the ETFs that represent each layer of the AI supercycle.

The biggest money is rarely made by buying what already looks obvious.

Everyone wants the next NVIDIA.

Very few are willing to look where the market is still underestimating the size of the opportunity.

The chart is interesting not because of the percentages themselves, but because it highlights a simple reality:

I decided to publish this company for one simple reason:

The fundamentals are improving faster than the market seems to realize.

I found a small-cap with record backlog, recent contract wins, exposure to a rapidly growing defense theme, strong margins, and a market cap that remains tiny compared to the opportunity ahead.

What I like most is…

Most investors focus on revenue.

The real money is often made by understanding where operating income is heading.

According to current estimates, Palantir could generate roughly $10B of operating income by 2028, up from less than $2B today.

The biggest money is rarely made by following a stock. It’s made by following a theme before everyone else does.

Most investors spend their time debating quarterly earnings.

The biggest winners often come from identifying multi-year structural trends and owning the companies that benefit from them before the market fully prices them in.

The biggest winners are rarely obvious in hindsight. They are obvious in the numbers before the market notices.

A stock going up 4,500% in a year looks like luck.

Most of the time, it isn’t.

It usually starts with a combination of:

The AI Power Race Is Just Getting Started

This may be one of the most important AI infrastructure developments of the year.

Microsoft just signed a 20-year power agreement to support a massive data center project expected to reach 2.67 GW of capacity.

The biggest opportunities are rarely found in a single company.

They are found by understanding the entire value chain before the market does.

AI, electrification, data centers and reindustrialization are all driving one common trend:

A massive increase in electricity demand.

Sector Update — June 21, 2026

The market continues sending a very clear message.

Semiconductors, Energy, Robotics, Nuclear, Aerospace and AI Infrastructure remain among the strongest areas attracting capital today.

Yesterday, I highlighted $ONDS because I believed the market was focusing on short-term volatility while ignoring what was happening underneath.

Today, we got another piece of the puzzle.

$ONDS is acquiring Cyberhawk for approximately $125M, adding 300+ customers, 95% recurring revenue, $95M of backlog, and a proprietary infrastructure data solution.