Cape Fear Advisors

Original analysis on growth strategy, capital markets, and the structural questions that matter most to CEOs, boards, and investors. From Greg Collins — forty years of operating experience, M&A advisory, and independent research.

Launched 3 months ago

Greg Collins is the founder of Cape Fear Advisors. He writes independent structural analysis of public companies — reading the filings, the cash, and the structure beneath the narrative.

Posts

Adding It Up: The Quality of Cash

Oracle disclosed the same $638 billion backlog twice this month, twelve days apart. The earnings release marked the portion already backed by cash. The audited annual report carried the figure whole. Same number, two documents, and the cash-quality detail lives in the one that isn't audited. Not a problem with Oracle. A new question to carry into any filing like it.

OpenAI, the round before the listing

OpenAI committed $122 billion in March, the largest private round there's been. Read across the investors' own filings, it comes apart into four commitments on four sets of terms, at least $35 billion of it contingent. The round reports totals. How much of it is cash is left to the S-1, and the listing is the event the whole thing is set against.

SpaceX, Adding It Up: Cursor Stock and Investment-Grade Refinancing

The week after SpaceX's IPO brought three documents: a $60 billion acquisition signed in stock, investment-grade ratings from all three agencies, and a first bond. Each was read as a milestone.

Oracle just said a lot about OpenAI

Half of OpenAI's $34 billion 2025 cost stack flowed to Microsoft. The concentration sits in the operating lines.

Structural read on the audited 2025 financials reported by Ed Zitron, verified by the FT.

CoreWeave, Adding It Up

CoreWeave's filings supply every input to one calculation: whether a unit of compute earns more than it costs to deliver. They don't perform it. A cash reconstruction, from the 10-K and 10-Q.