Central Asia Banking Update: High Tech, Deep Value & 40% ROEs
Central Asia Banking Update: High Tech, Deep Value & 40% ROEs
Kaspi navigates a one-time tax transition while peer-leading ROEs at Center Credit and Hamkorbank remain completely mispriced by the market.
Summary
Macro Divergence: Kazakhstan is entering a planned slowdown (5.0% GDP growth) due to oil limits and a VAT hike, but a firm $93/bbl Brent price keeps the environment stable. Uzbekistan takes the crown as the region’s growth leader with a resilient 6.5% GDP growth projection, backed by strong structural momentum and record gold exports.
Kaspi.kz (KSPI): The tech giant’s 1Q26 business remains incredibly healthy, with revenues jumping 31% YoY. Net income was flat at $0.5B solely because of a new 21% corporate tax regime. Marketplace GMV is on track (+19% YoY), and its Turkey expansion is scaling incredibly fast, now contributing 26% of total group revenue.
Halyk Bank (HSBK): The ultimate blue-chip quality compounder. It boasts an unbelievable 86% corporate penetration among Kazakhstan’s largest taxpayers, maintains an ultra-efficient 26.8% cost-to-income ratio, and offers a highly secure 9.5% estimated dividend yield.
Bank CenterCredit (BCC): The most mispriced growth story in Kazakhstan. BCC generates a massive 32.7% ROAE but trades at a deep 35% discount to Halyk at just 2.7x P/E and 0.78x P/B. A sharp normalization of credit costs in the second half of 2026 is set to trigger an 18% YoY profit rebound.
Hamkorbank (HMKB): An absolute hidden gem for frontier market investors. Located in Uzbekistan, it is printing an exceptional 39.5% ROAE but trades at a blind-spot valuation of 1.8x P/E and 0.61x P/B. It offers up to 155% upside as the country’s banking penetration continues to formalize and mature.
For more details read the full report:
Centralasia Banks Monitor 29may2026
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