Investment Idea with significant upside potential: Kaspi.kz (Nasdaq: KSPI)
Investment Idea with significant upside potential: Kaspi.kz (Nasdaq: KSPI)
Kaspi.kz Overview
Kaspi.kz is a highly profitable fintech and e-commerce company that dominates the Kazakh market with its all-in-one super-app. While growth slowed in 2025 due to new local regulations and early-stage integration costs in Turkey, the business remains strong and generates substantial cash flow. The recent pullback in the stock offers an opportunity to buy into a quality business at a more attractive valuation.
Kaspi has significant potential to reaccelerate growth through its expansion into Turkey and other regional markets. If these new markets perform well and growth in Kazakhstan picks up again, as management has guided post 1Q25 results, earnings could rebound in 2026. In that case, investors could see 50–90% upside over the next year, as the stock re-rates to a higher multiple more in line with its long-term performance.
Kaspi.kz Ecosystem and Super App
Kaspi.kz is a Kazakhstan-based technology and financial ecosystem, operating through a super app that combines:
- Kaspi Pay (Payments)
- Kaspi Market (Marketplace/e-commerce)
- Kaspi Bank (Fintech & core regulated banking)
It’s used by over 12 million monthly active users, covering over 60% of Kazakhstan’s adult population, with recent expansion into Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Subsidiaries:
- Kaspi Bank: Full Banking license under KNB, main driver – fintech revenues
- Kaspi Pay: Payment operator, manages QR platform and Network operator
- Kaspi Travel: Booking and ticketing business line
- Kaspi Logistics / fulfillment entities
- Foreign subsidiaries: Kaspi Azerbaijan and Hepsiburada Turkey (majority - 65.41%)
Strategic Positioning
Users shop on Kaspi Market -> Pay with Kaspi Pay -> Finance via Kaspi Bank -> Deliver via Kaspi Fulfillment. All that drives low CAC, high retention, and huge profitability.
Recent Slowdown
While Kaspi.kz attributed its Q1 2025 slowdown largely to a new smartphone registration rule in Kazakhstan—which disrupted e-commerce transactions and lowered Marketplace GMV growth by 7 percentage points—the real picture is broader. The company is approaching saturation in its home market, with over 75% of the adult population already using its super-app. In urban areas, core services like payments, P2P transfers, and BNPL are deeply penetrated, leaving less room for hypergrowth. Additionally, tighter fintech regulations and high-interest rates have increased funding costs and risk provisions, further compressing margins and slowing Fintech growth.
Expansion to Turkiye
In early 2025, Kaspi.kz acquired a controlling 65.41% stake in Hepsiburada, a leading Turkish e-commerce platform, for $1.127 billion. Hepsiburada generated ~$4B in GMV and $1.17B in revenue in 2023, and had turned EBITDA-positive with ~2.4% margin. The acquisition gives Kaspi immediate access to Turkey’s 84 million population and aligns closely with its core super-app model.
To support its fintech expansion in Turkey, Kaspi also acquired Rabobank’s Turkish subsidiary, securing a full banking license that allows them to roll out Kaspi Bank products such as consumer loans, deposits, and BNPL in Turkey.
Post-1Q25 Guidance
After Q1 2025, Kaspi adjusted its outlook for the remaining year—but also introduced its first-ever forward-looking view for 2026:
- Marketplace GMV growth revised down to 15–20% YoY (from a prior 25–30%) due to smartphone registration headwinds and macro uncertainty.
- Payments TPV growth expected to remain 15–20% YoY, with take-rates continuing their gradual moderation.
- Overall consolidated net income growth guidance trimmed from ~20% to ~15% YoY (ex-Turkey)
- 2026 Outlook: Potential cautious but upward trajectory as growth should reaccelerate once regulatory effects ease.
Triggers which should help stock to re-rate
In Q1 2025, GMV growth was depressed by a one-off smartphone registration regulation, but a rebound to 30%+ GMV growth in Q2–Q3 would indicate normalization. A recovery in Kazakhstan's platform metrics could contribute to group-wide revenue and earnings growth reaccelerating toward its historical trends.
Approach to Valuation
Given the complexity of the business, it makes sense to value it through the SOTP (sum of the parts approach).
This article highlights the investment potential and strategic outlook for Kaspi.kz in the evolving fintech and e-commerce landscape.