Investor Club

Discover more from Investor Club

Our mission is to keep you informed about critical news events, prioritize financial education, and build your investing confidence—so you can make smarter decisions in rapidly evolving markets.

This is what we buying

The market has been under significant pressure lately, but there is growing evidence that this S&P 500 correction is entering its final stages

The market has been under significant pressure lately, but there is growing evidence that this S&P 500 correction is entering its final stages. While the headlines focus on the war and energy routes, the underlying data suggests the "growth scare" is already largely priced into valuations.

History suggests that geopolitical “shocks” follow a predictable timeline. Across dozens of major conflicts since WWII, the S&P 500 typically takes an average of 18 trading days to find its floor.

As of the March 30 close, we are currently at Day 13 of the intensified volatility following the military escalations in the Strait of Hormuz. While a few days ago the drawdown looked mild, the index is now down 6.4% over this 13-day window and 9.1% from its January highs.

Valuation Compression

We are seeing a significant reset in multiples. Over half of the Russell 3000 stocks are now down more than 20% from their 52-week highs.

• P/E Reset: The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio has compressed by 17%. This is right in the range of previous “growth scares” that occurred without a recession or immediate Fed rate hike.

• Yield Sensitivity: The real near-term risk isn’t the war, it’s the 10-year Treasury yield. It is closing in on 4.5%, a level that historically puts intense pressure on stock valuations.

The Tech Opportunity: A 7-Year Low

Tech stocks have rarely been this cheap relative to the broader market:

• The Premium Melt-Down: The S&P 500 Information Technology index is trading at just a 4% forward P/E premium to the S&P 500.

• Historical Context: For perspective, that premium was 47% at the 2024 peak. We have seen a 32-point drop since October alone.

• The Buying Window: Historically, this level has signaled one of the best buying opportunities of the decade.

So, what are we buying? Growth Large Caps & Core Infrastructure

1. Amazon (Ticker: AMZN.US)

• Price: $200.00 | Market Cap: ~$2.1T
• Investment Rationale: AMZN remains a dominant FCF engine. While the stock has seen a 15% retreat from January highs, the underlying efficiency of the retail segment and the re-acceleration of AWS (30%+ margins) provide a high floor.
• Financials & Valuation: Trading at ~35x 2026 P/E, a discount to historical averages. TTM Revenue of $680B+ with expanding operating leverage.
• Outlook: Bullish. Target $240–$250. The focus is on the “Soverign Cloud” demand in Europe and MENA.

2. Palantir (Ticker: PLTR.US)

• Price: $140 | Market Cap: ~$35B
• Investment Rationale: PLTR has transitioned from a “black box” government contractor to the OS for commercial AI. Its Bootcamps have drastically reduced the sales cycle.
• Financials & Valuation: Revenue growth remains steady at 25%+. Valuation is “premium” at 18x Sales, but net income has been positive for 5+ consecutive quarters.
• Outlook: Hold/Buy on dips. Target $190–$200. S&P 500 inclusion has matured the investor base, reducing volatility.

3. Salesforce (Ticker: CRM)

• Price: $185 | Market Cap: ~$188B
• Investment Rationale: The market “SaaSocalypses” fear—that AI agents replace human reps—is overblown. Salesforce owns the System of Record. AI agents are useless without the CRM data they feed on.
• Financials & Valuation: Trading at 22x FCF. Aggressive share buybacks and a 1.2% dividend yield provide downside protection.
• Outlook: Bullish Turnaround. Target $260. Expect a re-rating once the market realizes AI augments CRM value rather than cannibalizing it.

4. Oracle (Ticker: ORCL) & SAP (Ticker: SAP)

• Price: $150.30 (ORCL) / $175.80 (SAP)
• Investment Rationale: “Data Gravity.” Enterprise startups are features; Oracle/SAP are the mainframes. Oracle’s OCI (Cloud Infrastructure) is winning on price/performance for AI training.
• Financials & Valuation: ORCL trades at 20x Forward P/E; SAP at 24x. Both have record-high RPOs (Remaining Performance Obligations).
• Outlook: Buy. Target $210 (ORCL) / $250 (SAP). These are the “Sleep Well at Night” (SWAN) AI plays.

Growth Small & Mid Caps

5. Kaspi.kz (Ticker: KSPI.US)

• Price: $72.17 (ADS) | Market Cap: ~$14B
• Investment Rationale: Despite the 52-week range volatility, Kaspi remains a cash-printing machine with 77+ transactions per active user per month. The Hepsiburada acquisition in Turkey is the 2026-27 growth lever.
• Financials & Valuation: Deeply undervalued at 6.5x P/E. Dividend yield of ~8-9% is best-in-class for fintech.
• Outlook: Strong Buy. Target $145. The “Mature Kazakhstan” narrative is priced in; the “Turkish Expansion” is not.

6. Navan (Ticker: NAVN)

• Price: $10.59 | Market Cap: ~$2.4B
• Investment Rationale: The “Conviction Trade.” Down 60% from its Oct 2025 IPO price of $25, but showing 29% revenue growth and positive Non-GAAP operating margins. Greenoaks’ $274M stake is a massive signal of bottoming.
• Financials & Valuation: EV/Revenue of ~3x is a “broken IPO” valuation for a company with 850bps of margin expansion.
• Outlook: Speculative Buy. Target $20. High risk, but massive asymmetric upside if enterprise travel spend holds.

7. Amer Sports (Ticker: AS)

• Price: $30.74 | Market Cap: ~$17B
• Investment Rationale: Owner of Arc’teryx and Salomon. It’s a “Veblen Good” play—premium outdoor gear with massive pricing power and a cult-like following in China and the US.
• Financials & Valuation: Revenue growing at 15-20% with gross margins expanding toward 55%.
• Outlook: Buy. Target $40. It is the “Lululemon of the outdoors” but at a more reasonable entry multiple.

Vertical SaaS & Modern Data

8. Procore (PCOR) & Toast (TOST)

• Price: $59.23 (PCOR) / $27.40 (TOST)
• Investment Rationale: Essential Vertical SaaS. Procore owns Construction; Toast owns Restaurants. These are high-retention, “sticky” platforms.
• Financials & Valuation: TOST is finally GAAP profitable. PCOR is trading at 8x Sales, off its highs of 12x.
• Outlook: Bullish. Target $80 (PCOR) / $38 (TOST).

9. MongoDB (Ticker: MDB)

• Price: $240 | Market Cap: ~$19B
• Investment Rationale: AI requires unstructured data (NoSQL). MongoDB is the developer’s choice for modern AI apps. RPO surged 97% YoY, signaling a massive pipeline.
• Financials & Valuation: Trading at 11x Forward Sales. Recent executive departures caused a dip—this is the entry window.
• Outlook: Accumulate. Target $350.

10. Coinbase (Ticker: COIN)

• Price: $167 | Market Cap: ~$50B
• Investment Rationale: The “Crypto Infrastructure” toll booth. Revenue is diversifying away from just retail trading toward institutional custody and “Base” L2 sequencing fees.
• Financials & Valuation: Highly sensitive to BTC price, but holds $1B+ in cash.
• Outlook: Tactical Buy. Target $280.