Why did Putin invade Ukraine? - kamilkazani

Why did Putin invade Ukraine?

Date: Feb 16, 2025

Question: Why did Putin decide to launch a full-scale invasion?

Short answer: Because Poroshenko lost presidential elections to Zelensky.

Long answer:

Foreign policy is overrated. It can be a means, but is almost never a goal. A goal almost invariably lies in the domain of domestic politics. Therefore, when analyzing foreign policy, we must first and foremost put it through the domestic politics test. We must ask ourselves:

What domestic goal does this foreign policy measure serve?

Ignoring the true domestic purposes of foreign policy makes the “realist” theory of international relations very unrealistic. So-called “realists” assume that foreign policy is motivated by foreign concerns, while true rationales and purposes are almost always domestic.

Foreign policy is but a domestic policy by other means, and the war is a radical instrument of domestic policy.

When did Putin start preparing for the war?

Before we analyze Putin’s invasion through the domestic politics test, let’s determine the timing of his decision. Although the full-scale invasion happened in 2022, the strategic decision to invade must have been taken earlier. Our investigation indicates that the preparation for war almost certainly started in 2019. This means:

Putin started preparing for war straight after Zelensky’s election.

This allows us to formulate a working hypothesis: Putin started preparing for war because of Zelensky’s election.

It seems that once Zelensky won the presidency, Putin began plotting a forceful regime change in Ukraine. The preparation started in 2019 but was halted because of COVID and could fully resume almost two years later. In February 2022, Putin tried to execute his long-prepared invasion plan but failed. His failure to overthrow Zelensky’s government has resulted in the protracted war we are witnessing now.

Why did Putin want to overthrow Zelensky?

Let’s apply our domestic politics test. We propose that by invading Ukraine, Putin aimed to better secure his position at home.

(Which should be our basic assumption regarding any foreign policy decision)

We have also found that the decision to invade was made almost immediately after Zelensky’s election.

Then our question would be: Why would Putin feel like he needs to overthrow Zelensky to better secure his position at home?

This is a good question. Because of two presidential candidates in 2019, Poroshenko and Zelensky, it was Poroshenko who branded himself as vehemently anti-Russian.

Who is Poroshenko?

First and foremost, he is an oligarch. Best known as the owner of Roshen confectionery manufacturing group, he is widely referred to as the Chocolate King (although he has controlled many other businesses as well).

Second, he is a career politician and administrator. He has served as:

After the overthrow of Yanukovich, his former Minister for Economic Affairs, Poroshenko, was elected as the President of Ukraine.

Elected as President and inheriting the simmering war in Donbass, Poroshenko adopted a very anti-Russian stance:

In 2019, the vehemently anti-Russian Poroshenko lost elections to pro-appeasement candidate Zelensky. That is when Russia started preparing for war.

At first glance, this thought may look absurd. Poroshenko was a hawk, and Zelensky was a dove. That’s how they looked, talked, and presented themselves. Their electoral campaigns were based upon presenting themselves as a hawk and a dove respectively.

Poroshenko’s campaign slogan: Army, language, faith.

Poroshenko presented himself as a patriotic, pro-war, pro-national defense candidate.

Zelensky framed himself as an ultra-dove, as an extreme dove.