A fundamental problem that AI marketeers have is that they must sell to the rest of the world, and that their internal hype makes challenges for them. They would have problems anyway, because the sort of apparent expertise and insular enthusiasm that they have been running on has lost good will in the broader perspective.

I think it is quite likely that OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs could be attempts to bust out, and could fail.

We may be going into a desert where opportunities for business on a speculative basis of Greta-Thunberg-style youthful certainty are concerned, for example. Which may be youthful certainty on my part, and entirely silly.

Dario has the problem that he tried to talk to the federal government without really understanding how the federal government thinks and acts.

Altman was not making that mistake, but in addition to his other problems is closely tied to Microsoft, and maybe almost everyone has an opinion on Microsoft, Windows 11, and the copilot push.