Comments - One IPO achieved, two flame outs likely
One IPO achieved, two flame outs likely
Francis Turner Jun 14
SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI
5 Comments
BehaviorForecastsProbablyHard - Jun 15
Liked by Francis Turner
Yeah.
A fundamental problem that AI marketeers have is that they must sell to the rest of the world, and that their internal hype makes challenges for them. They would have problems anyway, because the sort of apparent expertise and insular enthusiasm that they have been running on has lost good will in the broader perspective.
I think it is quite likely that OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs could be attempts to bust out, and could fail.
We may be going into a desert where opportunities for business on a speculative basis of Greta-Thunberg-style youthful certainty are concerned, for example. Which may be youthful certainty on my part, and entirely silly.
Dario has the problem that he tried to talk to the federal government without really understanding how the federal government thinks and acts.
Altman was not making that mistake, but in addition to his other problems is closely tied to Microsoft, and maybe almost everyone has an opinion on microsoft, windows 11, and the copilot push.
Liked by Francis Turner
I'm thinking xAI will be spun off at some point, or else the plan is that orbital data centers will resolve the eternal fast/good/cheap conundrum while charging competitors an eye-watering and nose-bleeding premium. Right now it made sense to bundle and launch. Longer term, up or down, it may make sense to split. I'm neither AI-phile nor -phobe but the (shady) numbers, not to mention lack thereof, lead me to conclude we might be centuries and/or several paradigm shifts away from any commercially-viable LLMs.
Leading to: I coulda bought Tesla when it was around 24 but my dad and I talked ourselves out of it. We learned it was a battery R&D company paying for itself by making cars, were on the fence about the sensibility of that, and missed our moment. That is, xAI is not the thing but again, always, it's Mars. My hunch is that Elon isn't going to trust Mars to another guy's AI.
It's a long shot (lit.) but isn't that his sweet spot?
Yep. See this X article from Marc Andreessen
The goal is 100M residents on Mars. Everything else is a side show or part of the process to get there
Thanks - I follow pmarca but hadn't seen that article. All the threads I knew, more I suspected. OODA at a completely different level than most of us.
I’m not going to update my post. But this link has the reverse engineered (guessed) details of the SpaceX AI1 satellite - https://research.33fg.com/analysis/spacex-ai1-a-subsystem-level-reconstruction (archive https://archive.md/u6F8M) - and says it has a 150kW power budget
150kW is roughly the equivalent of 5 20U racks of Nvidia B300 clusters making 80GPUs. I suspect actual compute power usage will be less (say 80% or 4 racks/64GPUs) because there will be power used by other parts of the satellite.